Modelling Hen Harrier Dynamics to Inform Human-Wildlife Conflict Resolution : A Spatially-Realistic, Individual-Based Approach

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Predicting and understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of species recovery : implications for Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon conservation in China

Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31372218) and cofunded by the China Scholarship Council (CSC) and the ITC Research Fund, Enschede, the Netherlands. We thank Shaanxi Hanzhong Crested Ibis National Nature Reserve for sharing the data of nest site locations. We are grateful to Brendan Wintle, Justin Travis and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on a previous version of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Spread rates on fragmented landscapes: the interacting roles of demography, dispersal and habitat availability

This work was supported by the award of the Natural Environment Research Council grant NE/J008001/1 to JMJT.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data : how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Acknowledgements LS was supported by two STSMs by the COST Action ES1101 ”Harmonising Global Biodiversity Modelling“ (Harmbio), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). JMB and SMW were funded by CEH projects NEC05264 and NEC05100. JMJT and SCFP are grateful for the support of the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NE/J008001/1). LS, JAH and JMJT conceived the original idea. LS, JAH, JMB, TC & JMJT designed the study; LS collected the data; LS and TC performed the statistical analyses; LS conducted the integrodifference modelling assisted by JMB and SMW. LS conducted the individual-based modelling assisted by SCFP. LS led the writing supported by JMJT, JMB, SCFP, SMW, TC, JAH and GB.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Getting lost in the matrix? On how the characteristics and arrangement of linear landscape elements influence ecological connectivity

Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Natural Environment Research Council and Natural England for providing the funding to conduct this study. We are also indebted to the work of Greta Bocedi in developing the RangeShifter platform prior to its implementation in this study. Funding This research was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [Grant No. NE/P009697/1]. Support was also received from Natural England (https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/natural-england).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Improving reintroduction success in large carnivores through individual-based modelling: How to reintroduce Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to Scotland

Globally, large carnivores have been heavily affected by habitat loss, fragmentation and persecution, sometimes resulting in local extinctions. With increasing recognition of top-down trophic cascades and complex predator- prey dynamics, reintroductions are of growing interest for restoration of ecosystem functioning. Many re- introductions have however failed, in part due to poor planning and inability to model complex eco-evolutionary processes to give reliable predictions. Using the case study of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), a large predator being considered for reintroduction to Scotland, we demonstrate how an individual-based model that integrates demography with three distinct phases of dispersal (emigration, transfer and settlement) can be used to explore the relative suitability of three geographically-distant potential reintroduction sites, multi-site reintroductions and two founding population sizes. For a single-site reintroduction of 10 lynx, our simulation results show a clear hierarchy of suitability across all metrics. Reintroduction in the Kintyre Peninsula (west coast) consistently performed best, with a probability of population persistence at year 100 of 83%, and the Scottish component of Kielder Forest (southern Scotland) worst, with only a 21% chance of population persistence to year 100. Simultaneous two-site reintroduction in the Kintyre Peninsula and in Aberdeenshire (near the east coast) of 32 lynx gave a 96% persistence at 100 years. Our model was highly sensitive to survival, particularly of adults, highlighting this parameter's importance for reintroduction success. The results strongly indicate the potential viability of Eurasian lynx reintroduction to Scotland given the current cover of suitable woodland habitat. More generally, our work demonstrates how emerging modelling approaches incorporating increased realism in re- presenting species' demography, ecology and dispersal can have high value for quick, inexpensive assessment of likely reintroduction success and for selection between alternative strategies.REF Compliant by Deposit in Stirling's Repositor

Prospecting and informed dispersal : Understanding and predicting their joint eco-evolutionary dynamics

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AP was funded by a European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 753420 (EcoEvoProspectS project). JMJT and AS were funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, project grant BB/S507349/1.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

RangeShiftR : an R package for individual-based simulation of spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics and species' responses to environmental changes

Acknowledgements – We are grateful for valuable feedback from many users who tested previous versions of the package. The Figures 1 and 2 were created using the draw.io app. We acknowledge the support of the Open Access Publishing Fund of the Univ. of Potsdam. Funding – AM and DZ were supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) under grant agreement No. ZU 361/1-1. GB was supported by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship (UF160614).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Early engagement of stakeholders with individual-based modelling can inform research for improving invasive species management : the round goby as a case study

FUNDING We are grateful to the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/J008001/1) for financial supportPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio-ecological systems

Acknowledgements: This work was supported by an EPSRC Doctoral Training Centre grant (EP/G03690X/1). Supplementary material (Appendix ECOG‐04039 at ). Appendix 1.Peer reviewedPublisher PD